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11/18/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No member of the New York Jets ever said it, but Thursday night's contest at the New England Patriots was a veritable referendum on the team's offseason moves.
If a Jets team that had brought in Brett Favre to lead the passing game, found him a blossoming over-the-middle tight end talent in Dustin Keller, signed two established offensive line talents in Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, traded for nose tackle Kris Jenkins to control the opposing run and a legitimate outside pass rusher in Calvin Pace still couldn't beat the now-depleted New England Patriots and seize first place in the AFC East, then lots of NFL observers would have taken to calling those moves pointless.
That would have been overstating things, of course, just as calling the Jets the new kings of the AFC East hill is an exaggeration, even in the wake of their 34-31 overtime triumph at New England.
The Jets still would have been part of the playoff picture even if the Patriots had completed their comeback from a 24-6 deficit by beating Gang Green, just as Eric Mangini's squad still has a great deal of work to do to fend off New England (6-4) and Miami (6-4) over the final six weeks of the season.
But, let there be no question that the Jets' win over the hated Patriots was a psychological mountain successfully scaled, and at least for the moment, no one will be saying New York shopped unwisely during the late winter and early spring of 2008.
Favre has taken some heat this season for his mistakes and an occasional lack of big plays, but neither problem was on display against the Patriots.
No. 4 completed 26-of-33 passes for 258 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in the loss, coolly leading the Jets down the field in the overtime session to get Jay Feely in position for the game-winning 34-yard field goal.
Keller, the rookie out of Purdue who looks to be the capable pass-catching tight end the team has long lacked, was Favre's favorite target with eight grabs for 87 yards on the night.
Faneca and Woody were part of a group that allowed the Jets to churn out 140 ground yards, including 104 on 30 carries with a touchdown for Thomas Jones.
Defensively, the Pro Bowl-worthy Jenkins had three tackles, a sack, and helped limit New England's running backs to 63 yards on 17 carries (3.7 per rush), and Pace ranked second on the team with seven tackles on the night.
Yes, the secondary still has some work to do after allowing Matt Cassel to throw for a career-high 400 yards, and the club must learn to keep its foot on the gas when holding a big lead, but let's remember that this team was 2-8 at this point last year, and there are strides still to be made.
Thursday's win was more evidence that the strides have been gallops, as opposed to baby steps.
"What has pleased me and what I'm continuing to look for is complementary football, and all three phases being able to contribute to the success that week," said Mangini on Monday. "(In) each phase understanding what they have to get done in the game in order to win the game and how they have to play it in order to help the other phases be successful - complete football, not having drop-offs late in the game, being able to deal with whatever adversity comes throughout the course of the game. Sometimes you're going to be up, sometimes you're going to be behind, sometimes it's going to be tied. There's going to be a lot of different challenges that you face, you see those, you deal with them, and you move on. I've been pleased with that, too."
BILLS: What a difference a month makes.
It was on October 19th that the Buffalo Bills moved to 5-1 and into control of the AFC East with an impressive 23-14 home victory over the San Diego Chargers.
Reporters were digging out those notes about 5-1 teams and their usual fate as playoff entries, quarterback Trent Edwards looked like he would need to make reservations for that Pro Bowl trip to Hawaii, and talk was rife of head coach Dick Jauron's imminent signing of a contract extension.
One month later, the Bills are just another middling 5-5 team, Edwards isn't even a cinch to keep his job until the end of the year, and, after Monday night's galling 29-27 home loss to the Cleveland Browns, Jauron does not rate high on the list of Bills fans' favorite luminaries.
Jauron didn't throw those three first-quarter interceptions, that was Edwards (16-of-26, 148 yards, 1 TD), but his conservative approach in the final seconds, with the Bills trying to get into position for a game-winning field goal try, has led to some second-guessing.
With the ball at the Browns 34-yard-line, the Bills opted for three straight inside running plays instead of throwing the ball to get kicker Rian Lindell a few yards closer on a crisp night at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
The usually automatic Lindell missed his 47-yard field goal try wide right to send Buffalo to a fourth straight loss, the Bills' first four-game losing skid since it lost five in a row in 2005.
"I just missed my line," said Lindell of the miss. "I hit a good ball. I had a good approach. It just kept going straight right. I've got to make that. It's ridiculous."
The defeat dropped Buffalo alone into last place in the AFC East, including 0-4 in the division.
DOLPHINS: The Miami Dolphins' last two wins, narrow affairs over the struggling Seattle Seahawks (21-19) and Oakland Raiders (17-15), will not be judged as having historical importance as time marches on.
The victories have, however, moved the surprising Fins closer to a couple of notable historical benchmarks.
If they don't win another game this year, Miami will have already matched its best-ever turnaround, tying its jump from 4-12 in 2004 to 9-7 in its first year under Nick Saban in 2005. That one seems like a cinch, and the best single-season turnaround in NFL history is also within the sights of Tony Sparano's club.
The 1999 Indianapolis Colts, who finished 13-3 one season after going 3-13, are still the most abrupt worst-to-first story in NFL annals. The Dolphins would need to win out to surpass that mark, and would need to finish 11-5 to match it.
A record like that would be almost certain to get the Dolphins into the postseason for the first time since 2001, and will also keep Miami within range of an AFC East title that absolutely no one predicted the Dolphins would be in the ballpark of prior to the start of the season.
The team can take another major step toward that goal this week, when they try to complete their first home-and-home sweep of the New England Patriots since the 2000 season. The Fins were surprise 38-13 winners at the Patriots in Week 3.
"Every time you win," said defensive end Vonnie Holliday, "you give yourself an opportunity to be on a bigger stage and have a bigger opportunity.
"That's where we are, and while no believed we could be here, we did."
PATRIOTS: As 2008 training camp neared its end, there was speculation that Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel might not even make the 53-man roster.
Cassel had not played particularly well in the preseason, New England had used a third-round Draft choice on San Diego State's Kevin O'Connell in April, and the other QB seen as being on the bubble, holdover Matt Gutierrez, had outplayed Cassel in the summer. There was also a chance Bill Belichick would scour the waiver wire to find a backup to Tom Brady.
But Cassel survived, and now all of that chatter seems like it occurred eons ago. Brady's injury forced the four-year USC backup into his first starting role since high school, and Cassel has responded by keeping the Patriots in the thick of the playoff race.
His tour de force came this past Thursday, when he completed 31-of-50 passes for 400 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions, also rushing for 62 yards in the 34-31 overtime near-miss against the Jets.
Cassel was unable to complete the comeback with a win, but he did rally New England back from a deficit of 24-6, and his 16-yard touchdown pass to Randy Moss with a second to play in regulation rivaled any of the clutch throws made by Brady during his certain-Hall of Fame career.
Now in the final year of his contract, Cassel's role as the capable understudy could yield him a large monetary result as some team's leading man next season.
"It's definitely a confidence booster," said New England wideout Jabar Gaffney of Cassel's performance on Thursday. "We were down and he brought us all the way back and we had a chance.
"Matt played a hell of a game tonight."
<< Worcester loans DaSilva to Phoenix
Worcester, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Worcester Sharks loaned Dan DaSilva to
Phoenix in the ECHL, the American Hockey league club announced on Tuesday.
The 23-year-old played in three games with the Sharks this season recording an
assist a
<< Villa coach O'Neill ignores rumors about Barry
Birmingham, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aston Villa boss Martin O'Neill has
played down renewed doubts over England midfielder Gareth Barry's future at the
Midlands club.
Barry was poised for an $27 million transfer to Liverpool in the s
<< Juventus goalie Buffon rejected Milan switch
Turin, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juventus legend Gianluigi Buffon has admitted
that he almost left the club following its relegation from Serie A just over
two years ago.
The 30-year-old goalkeeper, who is currently sidelined by a groi
<< Everton manager Moyes fined by the FA
Merseyside, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Moyes has been fined $7,500 by the
Football Association after the Everton manager admitted a charge of improper
conduct relating to his behavior during the Toffees' 3-2 victory at Stoke City
in S
Columbus, New York took opposite routes to MLS Cup '08 >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Crew are the No. 1 seed in
the Major League Soccer Cup playoffs after finishing the regular season with
the league's best record, using consistency on both sides of the ball to get
where it
Surgery will sideline Man City's Petrov 3-4 months >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester City has admitted it doesn't
expect Martin Petrov to be fit enough to make a first-team return until mid-
March.
The winger has been forced to have surgery on his left knee after picki
Man City's Robinho eyes UEFA Cup glory >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brazil international Robinho remains
confident that he can help Manchester City win some silverware this season.
The 24-year-old made a surprise $48.8 million switch to Eastlands at the end of
Augus
AFC West: Broncos Impressive on Multiple Fronts >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Heading into their game at Atlanta last week, the notion of
the Denver Broncos scoring only 24 points would have likely been met with
jubilation by Falcons fans.
The way Denver had played defense this season, there was gre
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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