Cyclones hope to blow past Jayhawks in Big 12 tussle

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/18/2009 - Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Still, very much in the hunt for the Big 12 title, the 15th-ranked Kansas Jayhawks welcome the Iowa State Cyclones to Lawrence for a conference matchup from the Allen Fieldhouse.

Bill Self's Jayhawks are an impressive 9-1 in league action, trailing the Oklahoma Sooners by just one game in the standings. Kansas suffered its only league loss last week in a nail-biter at Missouri (62-60), but bounced back with a solid 85-74 win at rival Kansas State this past weekend.

The Cyclones have not had similar success in-conference, and are a miserable 2-8 in Big 12 affairs thus far. Iowa State has only won one game in its last eight outings, that coming this past week against Colorado (70-42). However, ISU was unable to build off that victory, falling hard at Oklahoma State on Saturday, 86-67.

The Jayhawks are seeking the regular season sweep over the Cyclones after posting an 82-67 decision in Ames back on January 24th. It was the seventh straight win for Kansas in the series.

The Cyclones have had their share of problems at the offensive end of the floor this year and the direct result is the team's mediocre 13-12 record. Averaging just 65.2 ppg simply isn't good enough to remain competitive in the tough Big 12. Overall youth and a lack of scoring depth are certainly the main problems, as there just isn't enough explosive talent around standout forward Craig Brackins. The 6-10 sophomore is one of the top frontcourt players in the league, averaging a near double-double with 19.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. Fellow sophomore Diante Garrett is a distant second in the scoring column at 9.9 ppg. The loss to Oklahoma State was a perfect example of ISU's woes this year. Brackins was once again masterful, finishing with 27 points and nine rebounds. Lucca Staiger and Garrett provided some support, with 14 and 12 points, respectively, but the team still dropped a 19-point decision in Stillwater.

Kansas bounced back from its only conference loss of the season with a nine- point decision against Kansas State on the road this past weekend. It wasn't an easy win by any stretch, as the Jayhawks gutted one out behind the play of Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins. The pair combined for 40 points in the win, as the team as a whole shot a solid .568 from the field. Freshman Marcus Morris added 15 points off the bench, while Brady Morningstar rounded out the double-figure scorers with 12 points. The defending national champs may have an almost new team on the floor this year, but the results have been similar. Kansas is getting it done at both ends of the floor, averaging 77.5 ppg, while holding foes to just 65.1. Collins is the court leader, pacing the team in both scoring (17.6ppg) and assists (125). Aldrich is the perfect complement in the low post, as the 6-11 sophomore is averaging a double-double with 14.6 points and 10.2 rebounds per outing.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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