Despite defections, plenty of talent still on hand for Pro Bowl

Football Betting Lines

01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A select number of the NFL's best players will be making a trip to Hawaii to participate in this Sunday's AFC-NFC Pro Bowl, though the league's annual all-star game will be lacking some of its star power once again due to a variety of factors.

This will mark the third consecutive year in which the Pro Bowl will be held one week prior to the Super Bowl, thereby removing members of the New England Patriots and New York Giants that were chosen to play in Sunday's exhibition from their conference respective rosters once those teams qualified for the upcoming championship game.

The AFC has been hit particularly hard by the rule, as the Patriots had seven starters and eight players overall invited to Honolulu. That list included such notable names as quarterback Tom Brady, wide receiver Wes Welker and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

In contrast, San Francisco's overtime loss to the Giants last weekend may have turned out to be the NFC's gain, as a conference-best eight 49ers had been picked to the initial squad and just two New York players -- quarterback Eli Manning and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul -- had made the list.

San Francisco will ultimately send six representatives to the contest, with running back Frank Gore, cornerback Carlos Rogers and safety Dashon Goldson all withdrawing after citing injuries and veteran long snapper Brian Jennings recently added as a need player. Six Green Bay Packers, headlined by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, will also be on the final NFC roster, with head coach Mike McCarthy and his staff directing the team.

Following New England's defections, Baltimore had led the AFC corps with eight selections before four Ravens (running back Ray Rice, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs and safety Ed Reed) all pulled out shortly after the club's loss to the Patriots in this past Sunday's conference championship. That leaves AFC West champion Denver with a team-high six players, although popular quarterback Tim Tebow was not among those named.

Brady's departure elevates Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger to the starting signal-caller's post for the AFC, which will be coached by Houston's Gary Kubiak, with Rogers first to lead the NFC offense before likely giving way to New Orleans record-setter Drew Brees.

The unavailability of both Brady and Manning has also opened up spots for a pair of first-year quarterbacks, Cincinnati's Andy Dalton and Carolina sensation Cam Newton. The two will become the first rookies at the position to make the Pro Bowl since Vince Young during the 2006 season.

This will be the 32nd time in the past 33 years in which the Pro Bowl will be held at Aloha Stadium, with the 2010 edition having taken place at Miami's Sun Life Stadium.

SERIES HISTORY

The NFC took a 21-20 lead in the all-time series of the Pro Bowl following a wild 55-41 victory in Honolulu last January, the second-highest scoring total in the game's 41-year history, and has now won three of the last four holdings. The AFC halted a string of two straight losses with a 41-34 verdict in Miami in 2010.

Prior to the AFL-NFL merger, the leagues held separate All-Star games after the season from 1961-69. The NFL had its own Pro Bowl from 1951-60, while the league champion competed against an assembled group of top players between 1938-42.

McCarthy will be leading the NFC team for the second time in his career, having coached the conference to a 42-30 triumph in the 2008 Pro Bowl, while Kubiak has never previously had the honor.

AFC OFFENSE VS. NFC DEFENSE

New England's inclusion in Super Bowl XLVI, combined with the absence of Rice and two injured linemen -- Miami tackle Jake Long and Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey -- will give the first-team AFC offense a far different look than originally comprised, as five Patriots (Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters) had been tabbed as starters. Roethlisberger (4077 passing yards, 21 TD, 14 INT) will play after an ankle sprain that hobbled him down the stretch of the regular season had time to heal following the Steelers' early playoff ousting, with San Diego's Philip Rivers (4624 passing yards, 27 TD, 20 INT) next in line and Dalton (3398 passing yards, 20 TD, 13 INT) rounding out the conference's quarterback group. The Cincinnati youngster figures to be firing passes in the direction of teammate A.J. Green (65 receptions, 1057 yards, 7 TD), bumped up into a starter's role in place of Welker, as the first rookie quarterback/wide receiver pairing from the same organization to make the Pro Bowl, with Pittsburgh speedster Mike Wallace (72 receptions, 1193 yards, 8 TD) having the same familiarity with Roethlisberger. Jacksonville standout Maurice Jones-Drew (1606 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 11 total TD) will open up in a backfield that won't contain Rice or Houston's Arian Foster, with Denver's Willis McGahee (1199 rushing yards, 12 receptions, 5 total TD) and the Chargers' Ryan Mathews (1091 rushing yards, 6 TD, 50 receptions) filling those slots. The 30-year-old McGahee will be making his second career Pro Bowl appearance and first since 2007.

The selected NFC starting defense won't be undergoing a whole lot of changes, with Rogers the lone honoree to bow out of the contest. The 49ers will still have a presence on the unit, however, with disruptive tackle Justin Smith (58 tackles, 7.5 sacks) and inside linebacker Patrick Willis (97 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) each receiving well-deserved citations for their contributions to one of the NFL's stingiest defenses in 2011. Even without Pierre-Paul, the conference won't be bereft of top-notch pass rushers, as Minnesota end Jared Allen (66 tackles, 1 INT) led the league with 22 sacks and Dallas outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (58 tackles, 19.5 sacks) and Philadelphia end Jason Babin (40 tackles, 18 sacks) finished second and third, respectively, in that category. Rogers will be replaced in the opening lineup by Chicago's Charles Tillman (99 tackles, 1 sack, 3 INT) in the veteran corner's first trip to Honolulu, while 35-year-old Charles Woodson (74 tackles, 2 sacks, 7 INT) garnered his eighth career Pro Bowl nod on the opposite side and joins outside linebacker and Green Bay teammate Clay Matthews (50 tackles, 6 sacks, 3 INT) as a starter.

NFC OFFENSE VS. AFC DEFENSE

Rodgers (4643 passing yards, 45 TD, 6 INT) will the first up out of an absolutely loaded NFC crop of quarterbacks after setting an new NFL single-year standard with a 122.5 passer rating. The prolific Brees (5476 passing yards, 46 TD, 14 INT), meanwhile, shattered Dan Marino's 27-year-old mark for passing yards in his banner 2011 campaign, while the dynamic Newton (4051 passing yards, 21 TD, 17 INT) threw for more yards than any rookie in league history. That stellar trio won't have the luxury of working with perhaps the best receiver in the game today, however, with Detroit superstar Calvin Johnson declining to attend because of a sore Achilles tendon, though the combo of Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald (80 receptions, 1411 yards, 8 TD) -- the 2009 Pro Bowl MVP -- and Carolina veteran Steve Smith (79 receptions, 1394 yards, 7 TD) alongside New Orleans tight end and first-time selection Jimmy Graham (99 receptions, 1310 yards, 11 TD) ensures there will be more than enough elite targets to go around. The backfield also possesses two quality pass-catchers in Philadelphia first-timer LeSean McCoy (1309 rushing yards, 48 receptions, 20 total TD) and Chicago's Matt Forte (997 rushing yards, 52 receptions, 4 total TD), slated to participate despite missing the final four weeks of the regular season with a sprained knee. Graham is one of three Saints chosen as starters, along with the stout guard tandem of Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans.

The decision of Baltimore's terrific trio of Ngata, Suggs and Reed to all skip this event further depletes an AFC defense that also lost a pair of key Patriots -- tackle Vince Wilfork and injured end Andre Carter -- to the front line. The starting crew will now have a strong Denver look to it, with end Elvis Dumervil (42 tackles, 9.5 sacks) and decorated safety Brian Dawkins (51 tackles, 3 sacks) joining dazzling rookie linebacker Von Miller (64 tackles, 11.5 sacks) and seasoned cornerback Champ Bailey (39 tackles, 2 INT, 10 PD) in the opening lineup following the roster shuffle. Bailey was named to the Pro Bowl for the 11th time, the most by a corner in league history, while the 38- year-old Dawkins has now earned nine such laurels over the course of his distinguished career. Ravens inside linebacker Ray Lewis (95 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) has both men beat, as the two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year will be part of the AFC team for the 13th time. He'll start alongside Miller and Kansas City pass rusher Tamba Hali (66 tackles), whose 12 sacks trailed only Suggs' 14 for tops in the conference this season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

There will be a distinct Bay Area flavor here, with the kicker, punter and long snapper from both sides all coming from either the Raiders or 49ers. Oakland's Shane Lechler will be competing for the AFC for a fifth consecutive year after producing a 50.8 gross punting average, behind only San Francisco's Andy Lee (50.9 ypg) for the league lead, and Lee's 44.0 net average set a new NFL record that had been held by Lechler and enabled the eighth-year pro to make his third career Pro Bowl. Teammate David Akers also etched his name in the record books by registering new league highs for field goals made (44) and attempted (52) in a season, with that excellent performance landing the ex-Philadelphia Eagle a spot as the NFC's kicker for a third straight year and sixth time overall. The Raiders' Sebastian Janikowski will be headed to Honolulu for the first time, however, after the burly kicker connected on 31-of-35 three-point tries and an impressive 7-of-10 from beyond 50 yards. Jennings and Oakland's Jon Condo were added to the rosters as long snappers this week, with both specialists receiving their second career Pro Bowl nods.

The rest of the special teams selections will contain predominantly newcomers, highlighted by electrifying Arizona rookie Patrick Peterson's choice as the NFC's return man. The Cardinals cornerback tied an NFL record with four punt return scores while averaging 15.9 yards per runback. Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown gets the call for the AFC after averaging a solid 27.3 yards on kickoffs and 10.9 on punts, and the second-year wideout should also see time on offense after compiling over 1,100 receiving yards during the regular season. Chicago's Corey Graham and Jacksonville's Montell Owens, who'll be taking the spot of New England's Matthew Slater, were honored as special-teams coverage players and are each regarded among the league's best at that aspect.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

While it's near impossible to gauge how the players will approach what's essentially a meaningless exhibition and a hard-earned vacation, recent history does indicate that the game is almost certain to contain a massive amount of scoring, with the winning team having put up 38 points or more in nine of the last 12 Pro Bowls. The NFC has had the upper hand as of late and will also be coming in with less of a roster purge than the AFC, which had eight players withdraw due to injury in addition to having to replace eight Patriots. With the two best quarterbacks in this contest (Rodgers and Brees) also on that side, not to mention a multi-talented threat in Newton who should be eager to showcase his unique skills against some of the league's best on a national stage, and the blue team appears to be the better bet.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: NFC 45, AFC 34

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

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