11/19/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Apparently, Donovan McNabb does not love football the way some of us love football.
Those of us who fostered a love of the NFL at a young age or have, you know, checked out the league standings in the newspaper once in a while, knew that the column marked "T," the one that usually has a string of zeroes beneath it, does not stand for turducken, tapioca, or the 1980s band Toto.
NFL nerds like us salivate over weird occurrences like tie games, but it is true that some pro players, those who are more concerned with doing their jobs than rattling off stats, records, and seldom-enacted rules, are not diehard fans or followers of the league in which they play an active role.
So, we really shouldn't be that surprised that when the Steelers and Falcons played to a tie in 2002, back when McNabb was in his fourth year in the league, the unusual event did not grab his attention.
And his ignorance to the rule that caused his Eagles to tie the Bengals this past Sunday is not nearly as big a deal as the fact that the Eagles tied the woeful Bengals in the first place.
McNabb was horrendous in the 13-13 affair that knocked Philadelphia back into last place in NFC East, throwing three interceptions and generally offering up a D-minus performance when a solid C would have been good enough to beat Cincinnati handily.
Philadelphia's notorious boo-birds are calling for both McNabb and head coach Andy Reid to lose their jobs, and though such demands are nothing new in Philly, and are usually nothing more than the hysterical ravings of sports talk-radio-and-Yuengling-fueled cretins, this time Eagles fans really, finally, have a point.
Because truthfully, what does McNabb give the Eagles at this point besides the ever-nebulous "chance to win"? He may have been an elite-level quarterback at one time, but now, for whatever reason, he's fallen below that marker.
Think about the best QBs in the business, and compare them to McNabb. He's not fiery (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady), he doesn't look like he's having fun (Brett Favre), he's not clinically accurate (Kurt Warner), and though he's respected by his teammates, he's not beloved as are most of the current greats.
McNabb may be healthy after being sidelined by several serious injuries over the past few years, but it's obvious that his feelings are still hurt by the organization's decision to use a high draft pick on Kevin Kolb two years ago.
And he's always had a love-hate relationship with a fan base that didn't exactly welcome him with open arms back in 1999. After 10 seasons that have included a lot of wins but never the ultimate prize, it's hard to imagine Eagles supporters being able to totally mend fences with a talented player whose inconsistency has become almost impossible to bear.
Barring a late run toward the playoffs, which seems unlikely based on who the team has beaten and who it has left on the schedule, Philadelphia needs to cut ties with McNabb at the end of this year.
Maybe Kolb will be terrific, and maybe he won't, but the Eagles can't afford to keep spinning their wheels in any event. Sometimes, even reverse is a preferable option to neutral.
McNabb will probably have success somewhere else, when he has a fresh perspective and some new motivation, because we all know the guy can still play the game when he's focused and the spirit moves him. Minnesota, Chicago, and Kansas City all look like possible destinations where the five-time Pro Bowler could start a second phase of his career.
But if he sticks around in Philadelphia, and continues to be mediocre, it will be the fans, and not McNabb, who are fit to be tied.
Let's take a look at the week that will be in the National Football League:
WEEKLY SEED REPORT
An updated look at what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today:
AFC
1 - Tennessee (10-0) 2 - Pittsburgh (7-3) 3 - N.Y. Jets (7-3) 4 - Denver (6-4) 5 - Indianapolis (6-4) 6 - Baltimore (6-4)
NFC
1 - N.Y. Giants (9-1) 2 - Carolina (8-2) 3 - Arizona (7-3) 4 - Green Bay (5-5) 5 - Tampa Bay (7-3) 6 - Washington (6-4)
NFL POWER POLL
The Sportsbook Betting Lines's updated NFL Power Poll, which ranks all 32 league teams, can be found at:
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/misc/nfl- poll.htm
FANTASY FOCUS
Find Fantasy Editor Steve Schwarz's latest analysis at:
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= fantasy/index.aspx
SUICIDE POOL PIX
1. Dallas (vs. San Francisco) - Cowboys are off and running again, and 49ers don't have a quality road win in them at this stage.
2. Denver (vs. Oakland) - Not much to worry about for the Broncos defense this week.
3. Pittsburgh (vs. Cincinnati) - Steelers know they can't squander this lay- up, as the schedule gets significantly tougher thereafter.
THE GAMES
I was 11-5 in my picks last week, and went 9-7 against the spread. Perhaps you heard about the crazy finish of that San Diego/Pittsburgh game, which would have made me 10-6 had the final play been enforced accurately. Good think I didn't bet my mythical boat, the Whole Yacht-a Love, on that game, or I would have been somewhat upset at referee Scott Green. In other news, it was a good week for favorites, who went 12-1-1 straight up on Sunday. The record for the year is now 104-56 (.650) overall, and 91-64-5 (.584) when factoring in the spread.
Cincinnati (1-8-1) at Pittsburgh (7-3), Thursday, 8:15 (Pittsburgh -11)
Storylines: Steelers lead Ravens (6-4) by one game in the AFC North, and currently occupy the No. 2 position in the conference...Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer (elbow) expected to miss his seventh game, and sixth consecutive, with Ryan Fitzpatrick again starting for Cincinnati...Bengals wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh leads the NFL in receptions (73), and has at least six in each of his last eight games...Bengals are last in the league in total offense (242.6 yards per game), and sacks allowed (38)...Steelers are last in the league in fourth-down percentage (1-of-9, 11.1 percent)... Pittsburgh comes into Week 12 ranked No. 1 in the league in total defense (237.6 yards per game), rushing defense (68.9 yards per game), passing defense (168.7 yards per game), touchdowns allowed (14), yards allowed per carry (3.0), rushes surrendered of 20 yards or longer (1), and is tied for the league lead in sacks (36)...Bengals could be without starting offensive linemen Andrew Whitworth (ankle) and Levi Jones (back).
Fast Fact: The Steelers (four straight wins over Cincinnati) have not posted back-to-back home-and-home sweeps of the Bengals since 1993-94, when they completed an eight-game winning streak in the series.
Prediction: Fitzpatrick will be running for his life all night thanks to the Steelers pass rush. Steelers 31, Bengals 7.
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Philadelphia (5-4-1) at Baltimore (6-4), Sunday, 1:00 (Baltimore -2)
Storylines: Baltimore is a game back of Pittsburgh for first place in the AFC North, and currently holds the second of two AFC Wild Card positions... Philadelphia is a half-game out of final Wild Card Spot after Eagles and Bengals recorded the NFL's first tie since 2002 last week...Ravens head coach John Harbaugh faces an Eagles team for which he served as an assistant from 1998 through 2007...Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb posted season- worsts for interceptions (3) and passer rating (50.9) against the Bengals last week...Eagles have recorded an NFL-high-tying 36 sacks...Baltimore has allowed opponents to complete a league-worst 1-of-9 fourth-down attempts (11.1 percent)...Ravens have a league-low-tying two forced fumbles recovered... Eagles kicker David Akers leads the NFL in scoring (94 points)...Ravens tackles Adam Terry (ankle), Jared Gaither (shoulder), and Willie Anderson (ankle) all regarded as questionable for Sunday...Philadelphia guard Shawn Andrews (back) remains out.
Fast Fact: The last NFL team to tie back-to-back games was the 1971 Oakland Raiders, who tied the Chiefs (20-20) and Saints (21-21) on Oct. 31 and Nov. 7 of that year.
Prediction: Eagles don't look like themselves, and Ravens can't afford to squander home games if they really wish to make the postseason. Ravens 23, Eagles 16.
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Houston (3-7) at Cleveland (4-6), Sunday, 1:00 (Cleveland -3)
Storylines: Brady Quinn seeks his first home win as an NFL starter after leading Cleveland to a 29-27 victory at Buffalo in his second career start this past Monday...Texans quarterback Matt Schaub (knee) will miss his third straight game, and Sage Rosenfels will make his fourth start of the year... Cleveland tight end Kellen Winslow (shoulder) considered questionable for Sunday...Texans receiver Andre Johnson leads the NFL in receiving yards (955)...Texans quarterbacks have thrown a league-high 15 interceptions on the year...Houston is last in the NFL in takeaways (9), turnover margin (-13), and has allowed opponents to complete 7-of-7 fourth-down attempts on the season... Houston kicker Kris Brown is a perfect 14-of-14 on field goals in 2008.... Browns are 1-4 at home this season, while Texans are 0-5 in road games... Houston starting linebacker Morlon Greenwood (fibula) and tackle Amobi Okoye (ankle) both regarded as questionable for Sunday.
Fast Fact: In five all-time meetings against the Browns, the Texans have never scored more than 19 points.
Prediction: Browns haven't posted strong performances on back-to-back weeks all year, and won't start now. Texans 27, Browns 23.
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San Francisco (3-7) at Dallas (6-4), Sunday, 1:00 (Dallas -10)
Storylines: Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo makes his first home start since a win over the Bengals on Oct. 5th...Dallas, which is currently tied for the final Wild Card berth in the NFC, begins a stretch of four home games in its final six contests...Cowboys wide receiver Terrell Owens, who played for the 49ers from 1996 through 2003, will face his former team for the second time since leaving San Francisco...Owens has been held to under 40 receiving yards in each of his past five games...49ers quarterback Shaun Hill is 3-1 in four starts over the past two seasons, and has topped a 100 passer rating in four of six career outings...San Francisco has committed a league-high 25 turnovers, including an NFL-worst 12 lost fumbles, on the season...49ers placed tackle Jonas Jennings (shoulder) on season-ending injured reserve on Tuesday...Running back Felix Jones (hamstring) regarded as questionable to return to the lineup for Dallas...San Francisco leads the NFL with two blocked field goals for touchdowns on the year.
Fast Fact: The first home loss in Wade Phillips' career as a head coach came on Dec. 15, 1985, when his Saints dropped a 31-19 decision to the 49ers.
Prediction: Texas Stadium will bring out the best in Cowboys, who know they can't afford to let the 49ers hang around. Cowboys 34, 49ers 13.
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Tampa Bay (7-3) at Detroit (0-10), Sunday, 1:00 (Tampa Bay -8)
Storylines: Buccaneers are a game back of the Panthers in the NFC South, and enter Week 12 with a handle on the first NFC Wild Card berth...Lions are the lone remaining winless team in the NFL, and are trying to avoid their first 0-11 start since 2001, when they dropped their first 12 en route to a 2-14 finish...Native Floridian Daunte Culpepper will make his third start at quarterback for the Lions...Tampa Bay running back Cadillac Williams (knee) could make his first appearance since suffering a season-ending injury last Sept. 30...Buccaneers placed running back Earnest Graham (ankle) on season- ending injured reserve earlier this week, and signed ex-Packer and Steeler Noah Herron...Lions are last in NFL rushing defense (171.5 yards per game), interceptions recorded (2), and have surrendered a league-high-tying 37 touchdowns on the year...Buccaneers have given up an NFL-low one rushing touchdowns, and are allowing opponents to complete a league-low 32.8 percent of third-downs...Lions coach Rod Marinelli was a member of the Buccaneers coaching staff from 1996 through 2005.
Fast Fact: Jeff Garcia's 37 completions (on 45 attempts) in a 23-16 loss at Detroit last Oct. 21 rank as the most of his 10-year NFL career (regular season and playoffs).
Prediction: Lions have been playing with passion in an effort to get a win, but simply lack the talent to beat a quality opponent. Buccaneers 20, Lions 12.
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Minnesota (5-5) at Jacksonville (4-6), Sunday, 1:00 (Jacksonville -2)
Storylines: Vikings are in a three-way tie with Bears and Packers atop the NFC North... Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson leads the NFL in rushing yards (1100)...Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (11), and has five scores over the past two weeks... Minnesota linebacker Ben Leber leads the NFL in defensive fumble recoveries (4)...Vikings have had a league-worst four punts returned for touchdowns this season...Jacksonville head coach Jack Del Rio played linebacker for the Vikings from 1992 through 1995...Jaguars are 1-4 at home this season, tied for the worst record in the AFC... Jacksonville receiver Troy Williamson and cornerback Brian Williams are both ex-Vikings...Minnesota demoted starting right tackle Ryan Cook this week and replaced him with Artis Hicks... Williamson (groin), defensive tackle John Henderson (knee) and Matt Jones (thigh) both regarded as questionable for this week.
Fast Fact: Since winning at Tampa Bay on Oct. 26, 1997, the Vikings are 0-7 in the state of Florida.
Prediction: Vikings' road woes will continue against a Jacksonville team that must prove to its fans that it hasn't quit. Jaguars 19, Vikings 16.
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Buffalo (5-5) at Kansas City (1-9), Sunday, 1:00 (Buffalo -3)
Storylines: Chiefs have lost 18 of their last 19 games dating back to last season, including six in a row...Bills have lost four straight, their longest losing streak since the 2005 season, and have dropped two games back of the Jets in the AFC East...Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards has three touchdown passes versus eight interceptions during the team's four-game skid...Kansas City is last in the league in total defense (402.5 yards per game), sacks (6), yards allowed per rush (5.1), rushes allowed of 20 yards or longer (15), and opponents' third-down percentage (50.8)...Kansas City tight end Tony Gonzalez reportedly rejected a proposed trade to Buffalo last month...Chiefs' injured defensive starters heading into Sunday include linebackers Derrick Johnson (thigh) and Pat Thomas (hamstring), cornerbacks Patrick Surtain (quadriceps) and Brandon Flowers (thigh), and end Tamba Hali (knee)...Bills defensive backs Jabari Greer (knee) and Donte Whitner (shoulder) are questionable for Sunday, as is wide receiver Josh Reed (Achilles/ankle)...Bills linebacker Kawika Mitchell was a Chief from 2003 through 2006.
Fast Fact: The Bills are 3-9 in Kansas City since 1967, including five double- digit losses over that span.
Prediction: Depleted Kansas City will be the elixir for what ails Edwards and the Bills. Bills 20, Chiefs 10.
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New England (6-4) at Miami (6-4), Sunday, 1:00 (Miami -2)
Storylines: Patriots and Dolphins are tied for second place in AFC East, one game back of first-place Jets...Miami was a 38-13 road winner against New England in Week 3, and the Dolphins will be going for their first home-and- home sweep of the Patriots since 2000...Dolphins need one win to establish their best single-season turnaround in team history, surpassing the move from 4-12 in 2004 to 9-7 in 2005...New England's Matt Cassel became the first player in NFL history to throw for 400 yards and rush for 60+ in the team's 34-31 overtime loss to the Jets last Thursday...Dolphins have committed a league-low eight turnovers on the season...Patriots receiver and ex-Dolphin Wes Welker has at least six catches in his first 10 games of the year, an NFL record...Miami outside linebacker Joey Porter leads the NFL in sacks (13.5)... Patriots linebacker Adalius Thomas (forearm) remains out, and defensive end Ty Warren (groin) is regarded as questionable.
Fast Fact: The last Dolphins quarterback to engineer a home-and-home sweep of the Patriots was Jay Fiedler, who presided over two victories over New England in 2000.
Prediction: Dolphins win in Week 3 wasn't a fluke - they're a better team than the Patriots. Dolphins 26, Patriots 16.
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Chicago (5-5) at St. Louis (2-8), Sunday, 1:00 (Chicago -8)
Storylines: Bears are locked in a three-way tie with Packers and Vikings atop the NFC North... Rams have lost four straight games since winning their first two under interim head coach Jim Haslett...Bears quarterback Kyle Orton (ankle) returned to lineup last week and posted a season-low 65.1 passer rating in a 37-3 loss at Green Bay...Rams will stick with quarterback Marc Bulger despite team's average of 12 points per game during four-game losing streak...Running back Steven Jackson (thigh) not expected to return for St. Louis...Chicago head Lovie Smith was defensive coordinator in St. Louis from 2001 through 2003...Rams are last in the NFL in scoring defense (31.7 points per game) and rushing touchdowns allowed (18), and are tied for last in touchdowns allowed (37)...Linebacker Chris Draft (foot) is out for Rams, and fellow LBs Pisa Tinoisamoa (ankle) and Will Witherspoon (foot) are questionable... Chicago leads in the NFL in touchdowns off of fumble returns (3) and blocked punts (2)...The Rams' Donnie Jones leads the NFL in punting average (49.5).
Fast Fact: In Lovie Smith's only game against the Rams since departing St. Louis following the 2003 season (12/11/06), the Bears were 42-27 road winners.
Prediction: Could be a partisan pro-Bears crowd at the Edward Jones Dome, which will motivate the Rams to play well for a change. Bears 24, Rams 21.
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N.Y. Jets (7-3) at Tennessee (10-0), Sunday, 1:00 (Tennessee -6)
Storylines: Titans can clinch a playoff berth with a win and losses for the Dolphins, Ravens, and Steelers...Jets own a one-game lead in the AFC East, and enter Week 12 tied for the second-best record in the AFC, along with Pittsburgh...Titans are the NFL's lone remaining unbeaten team, and are 10-0 for the first time in franchise history...Tennessee can clinch at least a share of the AFC South title with a win and a Colts (6-4) loss...Tennessee is No. 1 in the league in rushing touchdowns (16), and Titans running back LenDale White is tied for the NFL lead in TDs and rushing TDs (11)...Jets have scored an NFL-high-tying 34 touchdowns...Tennessee has allowed a league-low six sacks on the season...Titans are No. 1 in the league in scoring defense (13.1 points per game) and turnover margin (+10)...Jets lead the league in fourth-down-percentage (8-of-9, 88.9 percent)...Inside linebacker David Harris (groin) remains out for Jets...Tennessee wideout Justin McCareins and center Kevin Mawae are both former Jets...McCareins (concussion), end Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin), and cornerback Nick Harper (ankle) all considered questionable for Titans.
Fast Fact: The Oilers' 24-10 win over the Jets in the final week of the 1994 season marked the first victory as an NFL head coach for the Titans' Jeff Fisher.
Prediction: Titans will lose just a bit of their edge against a Jets team that wants to prove it belongs in the Super Bowl discussion. Titans 24, Jets 22.
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Oakland (2-8) at Denver (6-4), Sunday, 4:05 (Denver -9)
Storylines: Broncos own a two-game lead over San Diego in the AFC West... Denver, which defeated Oakland 41-14 in Week 1, seeking ninth home-and- home sweep of Oakland in 14 years under Mike Shanahan...Raiders have not scored an offensive touchdown in 13 quarters, have not scored a first-quarter touchdown this season, and have not scored a first-quarter touchdown on the road since Sept. 30, 2007... Oakland is last in the NFL in scoring offense (12.8 points per game), passing offense (136.9 yards per game), completion percentage (49.6), touchdowns (10), rushing touchdowns (3), passing touchdowns (6), and third-down percentage (22.1)...Broncos are allowing opponents to complete a league-high 69.1 percent of their passes...Cornerback Champ Bailey (groin) and linebacker Nate Webster (groin) could both return this week for Broncos, but D.J. Williams (knee) remains out...Top corner Nnamdi Asomugha (wrist) considered questionable for Oakland...Denver has a league-low two rushes of 20 yards or longer...Broncos' Eddie Royal leads the NFL in kickoff return average (31.2).
Fast Fact: The last Raiders quarterback to win at Denver was Kerry Collins, who threw for 339 yards and four touchdowns in a 25-24 Oakland win on Nov. 28, 2004.
Prediction: Raiders offense will make depleted Broncos "D" look downright dominant. Broncos 30, Raiders 10.
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N.Y. Giants (9-1) at Arizona (7-3), Sunday, 4:15 (N.Y. Giants -3)
Storylines: Giants return to the scene of their Super Bowl XLII victory... Cardinals can clinch first-ever NFC West title and first division crown since 1975 with a win and losses for the 49ers (3-7) and Seahawks (2-8)...Giants own the best record in the NFC and are on a five-game win streak...Cardinals have a seven-game home winning streak dating back to last season...Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner, who started nine games with the Giants in 2004, will face his former team for the second time...Warner leads the NFL in passer rating (105.5), and Cardinals are first in completion percentage (70.7)... Giants lead the league in scoring offense (29.2 points per game), rushing offense (172.7 yards per game), yards per carry (5.3), and rushes of 20 yards or more (18), while Cardinals are tied for first in touchdowns scored (34)... Cardinals receiver Anquan Boldin leads the league in touchdown catches (10)... Arizona is last in the league in yards per carry (3.4)...New York running back Brandon Jacobs (knee), who is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns (11), expected to play despite suffering injury in last week's win over the Ravens...Cardinals lead the league in takeaways (22) and forced fumbles recovered (12), but have allowed an NFL-worst 19 touchdown passes on the season.
Fast Fact: In his only start since leaving the Giants following the 2004 season (9/11/05), Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner completed 27-of-46 passes for 264 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a 42-19 Arizona loss.
Prediction: Cardinals want to prove they can run with the big dogs, and will put together an inspired performance against a Giants team on cruise control. Cardinals 24, Giants 23.
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Washington (6-4) at Seattle (2-8), Sunday, 4:15 (Washington -3)
Storylines: Redskins head coach Jim Zorn returns to face Seahawks, for whom he played for nine seasons (1976-84) and coached for eight (1997, 2001-07)... Washington running back Shaun Alexander will face his former team for the first time...Redskins currently occupy final Wild Card slot in the NFC... Seahawks, who have lost three in a row, will clinch first losing season since 2002 with a loss...Redskins are 2-3 since a 4-1 start, and are scoring the fewest points in the league (18.1) among teams with winning records... Seattle won home playoff games against the Redskins in 2005 and 2007... Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (back) returned to the lineup last week following a five-game absence and completed 17-of-29 passes for 170 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions in a 26-20 home loss to the division- leading Cardinals...Washington has thrown a league-low three interceptions on the year...End Patrick Kerney (shoulder) remains out for Seahawks.
Fast Fact: In their most recent matchup against a former Seattle team rushing leader, the Seahawks allowed 71 yards on 12 carries to the Cowboys' Chris Warren in a 30-22 Dallas win on Nov. 22, 1998.
Prediction: Jason Campbell will bounce back against a Seattle team that doesn't make many big plays defensively. Redskins 28, Seahawks 17.
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Carolina (8-2) at Atlanta (6-4), Sunday, 4:15 (Atlanta -1)
Storylines: Panthers, who can record their best 11-game start in team history with a win, are one game ahead of the second-place Buccaneers (7-3) in the NFC South and are a game behind the Giants (9-1) for the best record in the conference...Falcons, who were 24-9 losers at Panthers in Week 4, are tied for the final Wild Card spot in the NFC...Carolina has won in three consecutive trips to Atlanta...Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan attempting to rebound from first home loss of career, a 24-20 setback to Denver last Sunday...Falcons running back Michael Turner is 29 yards shy of the first 1,000-yard season of his career...Panthers running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart became the first duo in team history top 100 yards in the same game in last Sunday's 31-22 win over the Lions...Panthers have had two punts blocked for touchdowns in 2008...Atlanta left tackle Sam Baker (hip/back) remains out, and Carolina center Ryan Kalil (ankle) is regarded as questionable.
Fast Fact: The last Falcons opponent to win in Atlanta in four consecutive seasons is the New Orleans Saints, who posted a four-game winning streak there from 1991 to 1994.
Prediction: Panthers have been living dangerously of late, and hungry Falcons won't lose back-to-back games at home. Falcons 20, Panthers 17.
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Indianapolis (6-4) at San Diego (4-6), Sunday, 8:15 (San Diego -3)
Storylines: Rematch of 2007 AFC Divisional Playoff game, won by Chargers, 28-24, in upset fashion on the road...Indianapolis has won three in a row, by a total of 13 points...Colts quarterback Peyton Manning threw a career-worst six interceptions, including three to cornerback Antonio Cromartie, in a 23-21 loss to San Diego last Nov. 11th...Colts safety Bob Sanders (knee) questionable for Sunday...San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers leads the NFL in touchdown passes (21), while Colts have surrendered an NFL-low two touchdown passes on the year...Indianapolis is last in the league in rushing offense (77.7 yards per game), but running back Joseph Addai posted his first 100-yard game of the year last week...Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson has been held under four yards per carry in seven of 10 games this season...Colts are first in the league in third-down percentage (47.7), and have lost an NFL- low one fumble on the season...Chargers are last in NFL passing defense (267 yards per game).
Fast Fact: Colts quarterback Peyton Manning threw for 402 yards in a 28-24 playoff loss to San Diego this past January, his highest passing total in a current span of 49 games (regular season and playoffs).
Prediction: Chargers' 3-4 defense could present the typical problems for Manning. Chargers 27, Colts 20.
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Green Bay (5-5) at New Orleans (5-5), Monday, 8:30 (New Orleans -3)
Storylines: Packers are part of a three-way tie for the NFC North lead along with the Vikings and Bears...Saints are in last place in the NFC South, but are just one out of the final Wild Card berth...New Orleans running back Reggie Bush (knee), who leads the league in punt return average (21.9) and punt returns for touchdowns (3), questionable to return following a three-game absence...Packers head coach Mike McCarthy returns to New Orleans for first time since serving as offensive coordinator there (2000-2004)...Saints quarterback Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing yards (3251), and is on pace to break the NFL single-season record in that category, held by Dan Marino with 5,084 in 1984...Saints lead the league in total offense (411.5 yards per game) and passing offense (319.7 yards per game)...Packers defensive backs Charles Woodson and Nick Collins are tied for the league lead in interceptions (5), Green Bay has a league-best six interceptions for touchdowns, and is allowing opponents to complete a league-low 51.5 percent of passes...Saints reportedly signed fullback Darian Barnes and running back Mike Bell on Tuesday, and placed Aaron Stecker (hamstring) on season-ending injured reserve.
Fast Fact: The first of Drew Brees' twenty-one 300-yard games as a member of the Saints came on Sept. 27, 2006, when he threw for 353 yards in a 34-27 win at the Packers.
Prediction: Brees won't have it as easy as usual against a Packers team that knows how to defend the pass. Packers 38, Saints 24.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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