11/14/2008 - Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Skinner captured the pole for tonight's season-ending Ford 200 Truck Series race at the Homestead-Miami Speedway and the final event for Craftsman as the series title sponsor. The No.5 Toyota driver circled the 1.5-mile oval in 32.221 seconds (167.593 m.p.h.)
The pole victory was Skinner's fourth of the season and the 47th of his career, extending his pole record in the series.
"When they brought the spacer plate along, it's now at these big race tracks where everybody is holding it wide open," Skinner said. "And Homestead is one of those race tracks it's hard to hold wide open, and we were able to do it. I guess that's why we're on the pole."
Meanwhile, the battle for the championship will be settled at Homestead as Johnny Benson enters the race with only a three point lead over defending series champion Ron Hornaday, Jr., making it the closest margin heading into the season-finale.
Hornaday, Jr. will start fourth after posting a time of 32.381 seconds.
"We know what we've got to do," Hornaday said. "Knowing Johnny, they've got their truck a lot better, so I'm looking forward to a good race."
If Hornaday captures the title, he will become the series' only four-time and back-to-back champion, as well as NASCAR's oldest national series titleholder at 50 years, four months and 25 days. Ted Musgrave became NASCAR's eldest champion when he won the 2005 Craftsman Truck Series title at 49 years, 11 months and one day.
Benson is aiming for his second NASCAR national series title as he has won the Nationwide championship in 1995.
Benson will roll off four spots behind Hornaday in eighth.
"Our truck is decent but still a little loose right now," he said. "It's a lot better off than it was yesterday. Let's just hope we race well."
Greg Biffle is the only driver to win both a Nationwide and Craftsman Truck Series title.
Benson is the defending winner at Homestead.
Hornaday entered last year's season-finale 29 points behind leader Mike Skinner, but Skinner lost the title when he suffered a flat tire early in the race and then encountered another wheel problem during the mid-stages, resulting in a 35th-place finish. Hornaday came in seventh and ended the year 54 points ahead of Skinner.
Joining Skinner on the outside pole will be Colin Braun (32.225). Sprint Cup regular Kevin Harvick (32.300) will start third.
Craftsman is ending their 14-year sponsorship with the Truck Series at the conclusion of this season. Camping World will serve as the series title sponsor starting in 2009.
The green flag for tonight's race is scheduled to drop around 8:00 p.m. (et).
<< Bush a no-go against Chiefs
Metairie, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush
will not dress for Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Bush, three-plus weeks removed from arthroscopic knee surgery, took limited
reps in practice
<< NCAA announces women's Final Four sites from 2012-2016
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NCAA announced Friday the women's
basketball Final Four sites for the years 2012 through 2016, a list that
includes Denver and Nashville.
Denver will host the women's Final Four in 2012,
<< Cowboys RB Jones out for Sunday
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Cowboys will get quarterback Tony
Romo back for Sunday night's divisional clash with the Washington Redskins,
but running back Felix Jones is still out with a hamstring injury.
Jones has not
<< UNI suspends football pair for drug arrests
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Northern Iowa football coach Mark Farley
announced Friday that he has suspended starting wide receivers Johnny Gray and
Victor Williams indefinitely after the two were arrested on drug charges.
The Ceda
Five Florida State wide receivers suspended >>
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Florida State head football coach
Bobby Bowden announced the suspension of five players on Friday who were
apparently involved in an on-campus fight earlier this week.
All the players will m
Canucks' Bieksa out 2-to-4 weeks >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vancouver Canucks defensemen Kevin Bieksa
will miss 2-to-4 weeks with a fracture of the metatarsal bone in his left
foot.
Bieksa was injured while blocking a shot in a November 4 contest agains
Royals add Arbuckle amid host of roster moves >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals named Mike
Arbuckle senior advisor to the general manager in scouting and player
development on Friday, while retooling their winter roster.
The Royals activated
Werner and Gators open season with win over Toledo >>
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Werner scored 19 points and grabbed
five rebounds, and the 19th-ranked Florida Gators ripped Toledo, 80-58, in the
season-opener for both teams.
Nick Calathes scored 16 points and doled out seve
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting